Here's A Scientific Theory For Why Iraq Is Erupting Into Chaos

From Slate, via Business Insider, a fascinating and thought-provoking article by Eric Holthouse, entitled Here's A Scientific Theory For Why Iraq Is Erupting Into Chaos

Excerpts:

A punishing drought hit most of Syria and northern Iraq during what’s normally the wettest time of the year... The region has seen one of the worst droughts in decades.

Drought is becoming a fixture in the parched landscape, due to a drying trend of the Mediterranean and Middle East region fueled by global warming.

When taken in combination with other complex drivers, increasing temperatures and drying of agricultural land is widely seen as assisting in the destabilization of Syria under the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Before civil war broke out there, farmers abandoned their desiccated fields and flooded the cities with protests. A series of U.N. reports released earlier this year found that global warming is already destabilizing nation states around the world, and Syria has been no exception.

With the ongoing crisis in Iraq seemingly devolving by the day, it’s not a stretch to think something similar could already be underway just next door.

Could there be a connection between climate change and the emerging conflict in Iraq?

Jagor's Comment:

 

This is not the only article I have read that focuses on the inevitable conflicts brought about by shortages and skyrocketing prices of food and water.  

The outbreak of violence in Egypt that led to the overthrow of Mubarak was sparked by a continuing series of riots over the increases in the cost of bread which had been very heavily subsidized by the government--it cost the equivalent of a penny a loaf. This 2012 article, Let them eat baklava, published in The Economist discusses how high cost of food was sparking food riots in Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Jordan and Morocco as far back as 2008.

  

In Egypt you've got massive overpopulation, a high population growth of 2% per year [U.S. population growth is 0.9% per year] a high level of unemployment of over 13% and a lack of enough arable land. Egypt imports 40% of its food and 60% of its wheat, and with droughts all over the world, the price of wheat has been skyrocketing: in May 2004 wheat was around  $150 per metric ton in May 2014 it was around $340 per metric ton: maybe good for Archer Daniels Midland but bad for Egyptians.)

You combine all those factors and you add a heatwave and you've got an explosive mix.  

Unlike the way the events were portrayed in the media, the Egyptians were not revolting because they wanted democracy. The recent overwhelming vote in favor of General Sissi (see the Jagoriade post of March 28, 2014, Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose) proves conclusively that the Egyptians did not want either democracy or Islamist fundamentalism, but the stability that can only be guaranteed by an authoritarian military dictator, a series of whom have ruled over Egypt since a military coup overthrew King Farouk in 1952. (The "Playboy King" sought refuge in Monaco, whose Prince Ranier granted him Monegasque citizenship.)

"Democratically elected" Mohamed Morsi's biggest mistake was dramatically reducing wheat imports and attempting to make Egypt self-sufficient in wheat production.

What the Egyptians wanted was not democracy but cheap, subsidized bread. Let's see if general Sissi can deliver the goods--the baked goods.